Newsletter of the College of Architecture at Texas A&M University
In his new book “The Great Housing Bubble: Why Did House Prices Fall?” Larry Roberts, who holds a Master of Science in Land Development degree from Texas A&M’s College of Architecture, explains what caused the bubble, what caused it to burst, and tips for buyers and sellers as prices tumble.
Roberts, who lives and works in Southern California, compiled the book from his frequent contributions to the Irvine Housing Blog, where his opinionated posts about the area’s real estate has gained many admirers and detractors. Irvine is located about 40 miles southeast of downtown Los Angeles.
“Long before Lehman (Brothers) crashed, Fannie Mae was taken over, and even before home prices were dropping nationally, he was one of the few voices presenting real information on the housing bubble,” wrote MalibuRenter on Amazon.com about Roberts and his book. “A full year before house prices started to crash, he was predicting it … an excellent read, and an important one.”
"I started telling everyone I knew, but no one listened," Roberts told the Orange County Register about his prediction. "I had people telling me I didn't understand real estate," he said, "and this is my line of work." During the day Roberts works at Mayers & Associates, a land planning, engineering and surveying firm.
Roberts’ book also includes advice for those who are buying or selling their homes during this period of falling real estate prices, including those who find themselves owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.
The book springs from his many lengthy, detailed posts to the Irvine Housing Blog, which includes information about homes for sale in Irvine and the surrounding area.
Roberts, who posts as IrvineRenter, draws fire for publishing the previous asking price for a home, how many lines of credit were taken out on the home, how much equity homeowners have lost and other details.
"I never post anyone's names. Everything I do post is public record. And the information is accurate,” Roberts told the Register. "They might find the information embarrassing, but perhaps they shouldn't have behaved in a way that embarrassed themselves to begin with."
His posts, which appear almost on a daily basis, are peppered with blunt opinions about sellers’ prospects.
“Based on their asking price, which the market is telling them is too high, they are priced to cover their loan obligations,” he wrote in a post on New Year’s Day 2009 about a home for sale in Irvine. “They will hold to this fantasy as long as possible, but when the payments overwhelm them … they will give up and lose the house in a foreclosure.”
He describes his views on human nature in frank tones.
“I came to realize that borrowers are like drug addicts: if you make money available to them, they will take it. Combine that tendency with a drug as addictive as Kool-Aid, and you get people who truly believe their house is providing them with free money, so it is OK to borrow this money. Once the fear of debt is gone, even fiscally conservative people get into the act,” he wrote.
“The Great Housing Bubble: Why Did House Prices Fall?” is available on the Amazon.com Website at http://www.amazon.com/Great-Housing-Bubble-House-Prices/dp/0615226930/ref=si3_rdr_bb_product.
The Irvine Housing Blog is on the Web at http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/.
